Leading Through Uncertainty
If there was ever any doubt about the importance of a leader’s ability to navigate change, uncertainty, and disruption, the global pandemic of 2020 erased it. While we may hope to avoid another crisis of that magnitude, one truth remains: we cannot escape the accelerating complexity of the world around us. And in the face of that complexity, the most vital leadership skill today may be this—the ability to lead through uncertainty.
As leaders, you may often feel stuck, overwhelmed, or underprepared. This is not because you lack vision or effort, but as Robert Kegan and Lisa Lahey explain in Immunity to Change, the complexity of today’s world has grown faster than our internal capacity to manage it. Computing power, for example, has increased more than a trillion-fold since the 1950s, while the human brain has changed very little in that time.
In a world with fewer clear answers and more unexpected challenges, the ability to lead through uncertainty has become a core leadership skill. To meet this need, you must understand how uncertainty affects decision-making, build a mindset that stays steady in unclear conditions, and use practical strategies to guide others with clarity and confidence.
This is where leadership makes the difference.
“If there’s one thing that’s certain in business, it’s uncertainty.”
Self-Assessment:
Leading Through Uncertainty
Please take a few moments to contemplate the following self-reflection questions. Where can you identify opportunities for personal growth in your leadership approach?
1. How do I typically respond when faced with uncertainty or ambiguity?
2. What emotions tend to come up when I do not have clear answers?
3. In uncertain situations, do I lean toward avoiding, controlling, or minimizing what is happening?
4. How consistent is my communication during periods of change?
5. What signals do I send through my words, tone, and body language during uncertain moments?
6. What practices help me stay grounded when things feel unpredictable?
7. How do I demonstrate adaptability and resilience to those I lead?
8. Do I make space for others to ask questions, raise concerns, or offer ideas during uncertain times?
Remember, this self-assessment is just a starting point for understanding your knowledge of Leading through Uncertainty as a leader. It's essential to reflect on your responses and actively work on areas where improvement is needed. Additionally, seeking feedback from others and working with your ECFL Leadership Coach can provide valuable insights into your strengths and areas for improvement.
At the heart of both life and leadership lies one inescapable truth: uncertainty is constant. Whether navigating a rapid shift in priorities, an evolving market, or an unexpected crisis, the ability to lead through uncertainty has become a core skill for today’s leaders. But leading in the unknown is not just about having a plan—it is about understanding people. And it starts with understanding how the human brain reacts to uncertainty.
The brain is wired to seek predictability. When the future feels unclear, it naturally scans for potential threats and often focuses on worst-case scenarios. This “threat response” evolved to keep us safe in moments of danger. However, in a leadership context, this can backfire.
Fear-based thinking often leads to hesitation and slows down decision-making. Teams operating in this mindset may delay action, avoid risk, or hold tightly to familiar routines. During times of uncertainty, progress rarely slows because of a lack of skill. It breaks down because emotional discomfort takes over when people begin to lose their sense of direction and control. This is where effective leadership becomes essential. Our goal is not to eliminate uncertainty but to help people move through it with clarity and support.
Strong leaders do not try to offer false certainty. Instead, they create clarity where possible, acknowledge what is still unknown, and continue leading with steadiness and care. A simple message—Here’s what we know. Here’s what we’re watching. Here’s how we’ll move forward together—can help shift attention from fear to focus. Naming the uncertainty and providing structure builds trust and helps others stay engaged, even when answers are still unfolding.
“Let go of certainty. The opposite isn’t uncertainty. It’s openness, curiosity and a willingness to embrace paradox, rather than choose up sides. The ultimate challenge is to accept ourselves exactly as we are, but never stop trying to learn and grow.”
The brain may instinctively default to fear, but leaders can learn to shift the focus—for themselves and for their teams. Instead of asking, What could go wrong?, they begin asking, What might be possible? This kind of mindset shift builds confidence, flexibility, and problem-solving. It encourages teams to explore options, test ideas, and stay grounded in forward movement.
Teams that regularly practice this kind of reframing are more agile, more confident, and better prepared for challenges they did not see coming. The most resilient organizations are not the ones that avoid uncertainty. They are the ones that learn how to lead through it.
Real-World Example: Howard Schultz and Starbucks
A powerful example of leading through uncertainty comes from Howard Schultz, who returned as CEO of Starbucks in 2008 during a turbulent period. The company was overextended, profits were falling, and the global financial crisis was creating widespread disruption.
Schultz didn’t panic. He paused. He listened. And then he acted, closing thousands of stores for a day to retrain baristas, a symbolic and strategic move to refocus the company on its core values: quality and connection.
He also made difficult business decisions. He reduced costs and closed underperforming locations, but did so with transparency and a long-term mindset. He communicated regularly, remained grounded in purpose, and framed the crisis as an opportunity to reset, not just survive.
Starbucks emerged stronger, more focused, and more resilient. Schultz didn’t just manage uncertainty—he led through it.
Leading through uncertainty is not about eliminating the unknown. It is about showing up calm, clear, and committed, even when the path forward is murky.
When leaders understand how uncertainty affects thinking and behavior, they can quiet fear, hold space for possibility, and guide others with a steady voice. Uncertainty will always be part of leadership. So will the opportunity to lead with courage, clarity, and purpose.
Leadership Lessons from Schultz’s Story:
Acknowledge the reality: Do not minimize hard situations. Face them directly.
Return to purpose: Anchor decisions in your company’s core values.
Communicate clearly: In times of uncertainty, silence creates fear and confusion. Keep people informed.
Balance decisiveness with empathy: Make tough calls while showing you care about those affected.
Reframe the moment: Treat uncertainty as a chance to reset and focus, not just a risk to manage.
Howard Schultz’s leadership through uncertainty reminds us that steady hands, bold clarity, and values-driven decisions can carry a company through even the most unpredictable storms.
To lead others through complexity, you must first strengthen how you lead yourself. While each person faces their own unique circumstances, the strategies below can help you build the capacity to keep learning, adapting, and navigating challenges as they grow more complex.
Here are some best practices you can use:
Get Comfortable Not Having the Answer
Throughout our careers, we are conditioned to come up with the answer—as in a single, definitive, correct answer. Given that our brains are hardwired to see uncertainty as a risk or threat, it is completely normal to feel stress when faced with unfamiliar situations. This is especially true for high achievers who have built their careers on knowing or finding the “right” answer.
Although avoiding these unpleasant feelings is a natural tendency, it can become a significant barrier to learning, future growth, and performance. Instead, leaders need to normalize not knowing. You must shift from a “know-it-all” to a “learn-it-all” mindset. That shift lowers pressure and opens the door to discovery.
Recognize the Difference Between Complicated and Complex
We often use the words “complicated” and “complex” as if they mean the same thing, but they do not. Complicated issues, like tax law, are difficult but solvable. Break them into parts, consult experts, and a solution usually emerges.
Complex problems, like global politics or climate change, have many shifting parts that influence one another in unpredictable ways. What works today may not work tomorrow. There is no clear playbook—only experimentation, learning, and iteration. Navigating complexity requires humility, curiosity, and the ability to adapt quickly.
Ditch Perfectionism for Progress
Given the nature of the world, striving for perfection is not just unrealistic–it’s counterproductive. Aim instead for steady progress. High performers often fear failure, embarrassment, or making the “wrong” call. Behind those fears is often an unspoken belief: If I mess up, I will not recover.
This belief is rarely true. In coaching leaders over the years, we have seen that mistakes almost never end careers. Instead, they often create space for growth, learning, and new opportunities. The real strength comes from acknowledging your fears, challenging them, and continuing to move forward.
Beware the Lure of Oversimplification
When things feel overwhelming, it’s tempting to break problems into smaller parts or look for patterns that resemble past experiences. This may feel productive, but it can cause you to miss the deeper dynamics at play.
In complex situations, avoid the tendency to rush toward a simple or familiar explanation. Step back and look at the broader picture. Investigate what is underneath the issue, not just what is visible on the surface. Be aware of your assumptions and remain open to multiple causes. For example, if employee turnover spikes in one department, it may be tempting to point to one manager or a specific workload. But a closer look could reveal broader patterns: breakdowns in communication, misalignment around expectations, or cultural issues that reach across teams.
Don’t Try to Lead Alone
Leaders often feel isolated when facing uncertainty or ongoing change. Part of that isolation comes from the belief that you need to solve everything on your own. As complexity increases and workload grows, it is natural to rely more heavily on individual effort.
When dealing with short-term challenges that have known solutions, this can be effective. But when the scope is unclear and interdependencies are not yet visible, working alone can lead to blind spots and missteps. This is when it becomes essential to seek input. Make it a practice to reach out to your network for insight and perspective. Strong leaders know when to pause, ask for guidance, and draw from others to make better decisions and stay grounded.
Zoom Out to See More Clearly
Leaders often get stuck in the challenges they face because they are too close to them. Zooming out, or moving from the dance floor to the balcony—as described by Ron Heifetz, Marty Linsky, and Alexander Grashow in The Practice of Adaptive Leadership—provides a broader perspective and a systemic view of the issues. It can shine a light on unexamined assumptions that might otherwise go unnoticed.
From this “balcony” or elevated vantage point, interdependencies and larger patterns become observable. This view can reveal unforeseen obstacles and generate new solutions. A more holistic perspective allows for greater adaptability and course correction when needed. By regularly making this dance floor-to-balcony shift, you strengthen your ability to see the bigger picture and lead with agility.
Nearly every week brings fresh reminders that, as leaders, we cannot control the pace of change, the uncertainty we encounter, or the complexity we must navigate. What we can control is how we respond. With a clear mindset and practical tools, we can lead more effectively no matter the conditions around us.
This session focused on leading through uncertainty with steadiness, openness, and clarity. These are essential skills for navigating change, and they reflect the kind of creativity that leadership at Areté requires: intentional, grounded, and adaptive. In the next session, we will explore resistance: why it shows up, how to respond to it, and how to lead others through it with empathy and direction.
Reflection Questions for Supervisors:
Think of a time when you didn’t have all the answers. How did you support your team anyway?
What helps you stay calm and steady when plans change quickly?
How do your team members respond to uncertainty, and what role do you play in that response?
Where could you bring more clarity or reassurance when things feel unclear?
Elevate your understanding of Leading Through Uncertainty by taking flight with the following resources. Use this opportunity to navigate, uncover, and expand the horizons of your leadership influence.
How to communicate effectively in times of uncertainty
90 Second Leadership - Leading Through Uncertainty (2:13)
Todd Adkins